VALID 06Z SAT 12/10 - 00Z SUN 13/10 2002
ISSUED: FRI 11/10 11:58Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS BALKAN STATES AND THE CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN REGIONS.

SYNOPSIS

N/A

DISCUSSION

...BALKAN STATES...
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE BALKAN STATES...POSSIBLY UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK BUT FAST VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON REORGANIZING OF THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT'S CONVECTION. ALSO...FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION AS WELL AS THE SHEAR PROFILES ARE PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME. THUS...HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT THAT PRIMARILY DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS VANISHES.

...CNTRL MEDITERRANEAN...
IN THE POSTFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BENEATH UPPER THERMAL TROUGH...NARROW BAND OF STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY VORT MAX WHICH IS EXPECTED OVER THE TYRRHENIAN SEA ON SUNDAY 12Z. A FEW DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EVENTS MAY OCCUR...AND MAYBE A BRIEF TORNADO AS COMPLEX OROGRAPHY OVER S ITALY MAY EASILY ALTER LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SO AS TO YIELD LARGE SRH VALUES. OTHERWISE...SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...AS WILL BE THE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. CONVECTION SHOULD THUS BE RATHER DISORGANIZED THOUGH SMALL HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE POSSIBLE.

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